Mike's Musings - What if...?

I’ve been closely watching this federal election as we go into this last weekend, and I got to thinking about “what if?” some things had gone down differently over the past few years.
So, please indulge me in a few thought exercises: 

1) What would this Federal election race look like today had Jody Wilson-Raybould taken on the mantle of Green Party Leadership this past summer? (It was rumoured that Elizabeth May offered it, but JWR declined and chose to run as an independent instead.)

I think Elizabeth May has run a horrible campaign and no one talks about how at the beginning of the race some pundits predicted a major breakthrough.  Some even predicted that she was on track to win 15 – 20 seats, though that was always fantasy, considering the inefficiency of their vote.  Now their best-case scenario is to emerge Monday night with between two and seven seats, all on Vancouver Island.

If Ms. Wilson-Raybould was the leader of the Green's, there would have been a credible, articulate, intelligent, Indigenous woman with a deep disdain for Justin Trudeau on the debate stage and in your evening news. Between Jagmeet Singh's strong performance - showing himself to be a human being with a sense of humour - and the constant visual reminder of SNC, etc. in the form of JWR - the dynamic of this race would be much different and I think it all would have come at the expense of Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals. (I think the Tory vote has been locked in from the beginning, which may, in the end, be enough to win at least a minority government.)

2) Four years ago, after Trudeau won, I remember commenting to some Liberal friends of mine that the smartest strategic move he could make would be to appoint Elizabeth May as Environment Minister. 

I wasn't wishing it; just pointing out the political expediency of it, and my Liberal friends scoffed at the idea.

Looking back, what if that had happened? Today, Liberals would "own" the climate change/ environment issue and certainly would have gone even more aggressively against the oil-patch, alienating Alberta even more, but they would be electorally locked in much of Ontario and Quebec.  How much different would this campaign be today? 

Well, if things shake out as expected on Monday, we may be seeing another opportunity for the Liberals to form a lasting coalition with the Green’s.  It could mean the end of the Green Party, but it could also form a juggernaut for the Liberals, especially if trends continue to show environment and climate change as top-of-mind issues.

Will either the Liberals or the Green’s have the courage to do it?

3) What would have happened four years ago had Trudeau “blackface” come to light then? Would Stephen Harper still be PM today? Would Tom Mulcair be PM?

Four year ago, voters were skeptical of Trudeau and felt he was unserious and a risky bet for PM (they were right to be skeptical, in my opinion) – but they chose him because he outperformed these low expectations and they took advantage of fatigue with PM Harper. If “blackface” Trudeau was outed in 2015, I bet Tom Mulcair would have benefited and the NDP could have formed government. (Maybe this explains why Tom Mulcair has become such a bitter political commentator. He knows now how close he came!)

Going even further back, if “blackface” had come out in 2013, during the Liberal leadership race, I bet Marc Garneau would be our PM today. (And don't kid yourself ... he knows this!)

Anyway, just an interesting thought exercise of how different choices and historical events and their timing could have changed the story being written today.

And something to think about as you head to the polls on Monday!

Mike Ras is a keen observer of public policy, politics and media. For his day job, he’s director of government relations with a prominent Canadian financial institution. A resident of Mississauga, part-time “professor” in the Government Relations program at Seneca College and an active volunteer with a number of local charities.
Connect with him on Twitter here.